South Pacific Tropical Cyclones and the Southern Oscillation

1986 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1138-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clifford G. Revell ◽  
Stephen W. Goulter
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific

scholarly journals Mesoscale Simulation of Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Patrick Marchesiello ◽  
Christophe E. Menkes ◽  
Jérome Lefèvre ◽  
Emmanuel M. Vincent ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
The South ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecast model at ⅓° resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the present climate of the South Pacific. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown to reproduce a wide range of mesoscale convective systems. Tropical cyclones grow from the most intense of these systems formed along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and sometimes develop into hurricanes. The three-dimensional structure of simulated tropical cyclones is in excellent agreement with dropsondes and satellite observations. The mean seasonal and spatial distributions of TC genesis and occurrence are also in good agreement with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. It is noted, however, that the spatial pattern of TC activity is shifted to the northeast because of a similar bias in the environmental forcing. Over the whole genesis area, 8.2 ± 3.5 cyclones are produced seasonally in the model, compared with 6.6 ± 3.0 in the JTWC data. Part of the interannual variability is associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO-driven displacement of the SPCZ position produces a dipole pattern of correlation and results in a weaker correlation when the opposing correlations of the dipole are amalgamated over the entire South Pacific region. As a result, environmentally forced variability at the regional scale is relatively weak, that is, of comparable order to stochastic variability (±1.7 cyclones yr−1), which is estimated from a 10-yr climatological simulation. Stochastic variability appears essentially related to mesoscale interactions, which also affect TC tracks and the resulting occurrence.

scholarly journals Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Climate Networks

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.

scholarly journals Climatology of Heavy Orographic Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones over Madagascar: From Synoptic to Mesoscale Perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana A. Arivelo ◽  
Yuh-Lang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Orographic Rainfall

Variability of and generation mechanisms for Madagascar rainfall are studied by conducting climatological, synoptic and mesoscale analyses. It is found the rainfall variability is highly sensitive to seasons with high variability in summer (Nov-Apr). The rainfall in summer is controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and orographic rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), while the rainfall in winter (May-Oct) is controlled by trade winds and local orographic rainfall along the eastern coast. Synoptic analysis reveals that major climate variations in summer are associated with ITCZ position, which is closely related to TC genesis locations and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Linkages between El-Niño Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are identified as the cause of inconsistent dry or wet summers. Mesoscale analysis depicts the importance of the orographic effects on prevailing wind, which are controlled by the orography in both seasons. In winter, the prevailing trade winds over the Southwest Indian Ocean are from the east and are split to the north and south when it impinges on Malagasy Mountains. On the other hand, in summer the prevailing easterlies are weaker leading to the production of lee vortices, in addition to the flow splitting upstream of the mountain. Thus, the flow is classified into two regimes: (a) flow-over regime with no lee vortices under high Froude number (Fr=1.2-1.8) flow, and (b) flow-around regime with lee vortices under low Fr (=0.88-1.16) flow. A case study of TC Domoina (1984) indicates that the long-lasting heavy rainfall was induced by the strong orographic blocking of Madagascar. The shorter-term (e.g., 2 days) heavy orographic precipitation is characterized by large VH ∙Ñh which is composed by two common ingredients, namely a strong low-level wind normal to the mountain (VH) and a steep mountain slope (∇h).

scholarly journals Formation Mechanism of Barrier Layer in the Subtropical Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
pp. 2790-2805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shota Katsura ◽  
Eitarou Oka ◽  
Kanako Sato
Keyword(s):  
Formation Mechanism ◽  
Barrier Layer ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Layer Depth ◽  
Isothermal Layer ◽  
North And South

AbstractSeasonal and interannual variations of the barrier layer (BL) and its formation mechanism in the subtropical North and South Pacific were investigated by using raw and gridded Argo profiling float data and various surface flux data in 2003–12 and hydrographic section data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment Hydrographic Programme. BLs detected by raw Argo profiles, which existed within the sea surface salinity (SSS) front located on the equator side of SSS maxima, were thickest and most frequent in winter and had a temporal scale shorter than 10 days, indicating their transient nature. Surface and subsurface processes for the BL formation suggested by previous studies were evaluated. Poleward Ekman advection of fresher water was dominant as the surface freshening process but cannot explain the observed seasonal variations of the BL. Subsurface equatorward intrusion of high-salinity tropical water was too deep to produce salinity stratification within isothermal layers. These results strongly suggest that BLs in the subtropical Pacific are formed mainly through tilting of the SSS front due to the poleward Ekman flow near the sea surface and the equatorward geostrophic flow in the subsurface. This idea is supported by the dominant contribution of the meridional SSS gradient to the meridional sea surface density gradient within the SSS front and the correspondence between the seasonal variations of the BL and isothermal layer depth. On an interannual time scale, the winter BL thickness in the North and South Pacific was related to the Pacific decadal oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, respectively, through the intensity of trade winds controlling isothermal layer depth.

scholarly journals Effects of Tropical Cyclones on ENSO

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6423-6443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Lian ◽  
Jun Ying ◽  
Hong-Li Ren ◽  
Chan Zhang ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Final State ◽  
Enso Dynamics

AbstractNumerous studies have investigated the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific on interannual time scales, but the effects of TCs on ENSO are less discussed. Some studies have found that TCs sharply increase surface westerly anomalies over the equatorial western–central Pacific and maintain them there for a few days. Given the strong influence of equatorial surface westerly wind bursts on ENSO, as confirmed by much recent literature, the effects of TCs on ENSO may be much greater than previously expected. Using recently released observations and reanalysis datasets, it is found that the majority of near-equatorial TCs (simply TCs hereafter) are associated with strong westerly anomalies at the equator, and the number and longitude of TCs are significantly correlated with ENSO strength. When TC-related wind stresses are added into an intermediate coupled model, the simulated ENSO becomes more irregular, and both ENSO magnitude and skewness approach those of observations, as compared with simulations without TCs. Adding TCs into the model system does not break the linkage between the heat content anomaly and subsequent ENSO event in the model, which manifest the classic recharge–discharge ENSO dynamics. However, the influence of TCs on ENSO is so strong that ENSO magnitude and sometimes its final state—that is, either El Niño or La Niña—largely depend on the number and timing of TCs during the event year. Our findings suggest that TCs play a prominent role in ENSO dynamics, and their effects must be considered in ENSO forecast models.

A Eulerian Explosive Cyclogenesis climatology from the ERA5 reanalysis, 1979-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Cropper ◽  
Stephanie Allen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Avalon Peninsula ◽  
Resolution Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

<p>Using the criterion of one Bergeron (24 hPa change over 24 h at 60°), we present the creation of a Eulerian explosive cyclogenesis climatology using hourly-temporal resolution data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2018). This approach differs to the typically used Lagrangian methodologies adopted by many studies. The climatology created by this approach results in similar patterns to previous studies.</p><p>Assessments on the dataset are undertaken to analyse the influence of seasonality, teleconnections, climate change and individual events (the method picks up tropical cyclones as well as mid-latitude storms). The location experiencing the most consistent explosive cyclongenesis conditions (15% of the time during the Northern Hemisphere winter) is to the east of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. The preferred location of explosive cyclogenesis is shown to change in relation to patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Potential applications of the dataset are suggested.</p><p>                                                </p>

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and Its Relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6108-6122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Dowdy ◽  
Lixin Qi ◽  
David Jones ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Robert Fawcett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The South

Abstract Climatological features of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Ocean have been analyzed based on a new archive for the Southern Hemisphere. A vortex tracking and statistics package is used to examine features such as climatological maps of system intensity and the change in intensity with time, average tropical cyclone system movement, and system density. An examination is presented of the spatial variability of these features, as well as changes in relation to phase changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. A critical line is defined in this study based on maps of cyclone intensity to describe the statistical geographic boundary for cyclone intensification. During El Niño events, the critical line shifts equatorward, while during La Niña events the critical line is generally displaced poleward. Regional variability in tropical cyclone activity associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases is examined in relation to the variability of large-scale atmospheric or oceanic variables associated with tropical cyclone activity. Maps of the difference fields between different phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are examined for sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, lower-tropospheric vorticity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. Results are also examined in relation to the South Pacific convergence zone. The common region where each of the large-scale variables showed favorable conditions for cyclogenesis coincided with the location of maximum observed cyclogenesis for El Niño events as well as for La Niña years.

scholarly journals Decadal Variability of the ENSO Teleconnection to the High-Latitude South Pacific Governed by Coupling with the Southern Annular Mode*

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 979-997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan L. Fogt ◽  
David H. Bromwich
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract Decadal variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the high-latitude South Pacific is examined by correlating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and observations with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) over the last two decades. There is a distinct annual contrast between the 1980s and the 1990s, with the strong teleconnection in the 1990s being explained by an enhanced response during austral spring. Geopotential height anomaly composites constructed during the peak ENSO seasons also demonstrate the decadal variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the 1980s September–November (SON) teleconnection is weak due to the interference between the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern associated with ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). An in-phase relationship between these two modes during SON in the 1990s amplifies the height and pressure anomalies in the South Pacific, producing the strong teleconnections seen in the correlation and composite analyses. The in-phase relationship between the tropical and high-latitude forcing also exists in December–February (DJF) during the 1980s and 1990s. These results suggest that natural climate variability plays an important role in the variability of SAM, in agreement with a growing body of literature. Additionally, the significantly positive correlation between ENSO and SAM only during times of strong teleconnection suggests that both the Tropics and the high latitudes need to work together in order for ENSO to strongly influence Antarctic climate.

scholarly journals Complex Network Approach for Detecting Tropical Cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Climate Networks

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society around the globe, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth's surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Ni~no Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks 20 of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain useful insights into the individual local signature of changes in the flow structure of the regional climate system.

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